It is China's $586 billion question, and outsiders are watching this week's legislative meeting for details of how Beijing is spending the stimulus announced in November to reverse a slump that has thrown millions out of work.
Observers want to know about tax cuts, construction projects and social spending that the secretive communist government has promised but left largely unexplained.
Beijing's decisions are being closely watched abroad, where outsiders hope the world's third-largest economy can help to pull the world out of recession by reviving its own growth and demand for imports. The speed and effectiveness of its stimulus could make a difference to how quickly the world recovers.
A key issue will be what Beijing does about health and education. They are budgeted to receive 1 percent of the stimulus. But economists say reducing the need of Chinese families to save heavily for school and medical costs will be critical to achieving the plan's goal of encouraging them to spend more on other things.
"I want to see programs that are specifically geared toward labor-intensive industries" to create jobs for millions of migrants who have been thrown out of work in the downturn, said Citigroup economist Ken Peng. "Those programs are difficult to engineer but I think these will be more effective in producing jobs."
The legislature is largely powerless but its ceremonial annual meeting that opens Thursday will give the government a platform to unveil new initiatives and encourage anxious consumers and companies to keep spending.
China's economic growth fell to a seven-year low of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter _ still the strongest of any major economy but well below 2007's blistering 13 percent. A planning official said last week Beijing is confident it can achieve 8 percent growth this year, but outside analysts have cut their forecasts to as low as 6 percent and say it might come in below that.
The 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus is aimed at reducing reliance on cooling exports by boosting domestic consumption. The government says most of it will be spent on building highways, airports and other public works. Beijing says it spent 100 billion yuan ($14.6 billion) in January alone and has announced some construction projects but has released few details.
Authorities might try to boost public confidence by announcing still more spending on top of the stimulus, according to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green. In a report, Green said officials told him in February that as much as 8 to 10 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion) in government investment over two years was "possible, if not likely."
"Formalizing this headline number would obviously be a boon to sentiment," so an announcement this week is "entirely possible," Green said.
Economists say Beijing can afford to step up stimulus spending because its finances are strong following a marathon economic boom, with a 2008 budget deficit of just 0.4 percent of GDP and low debt. This year's budget is expected to target a 3 percent deficit, well below the 12 percent expected for the United States.
Beijing released the first details in January of its overhaul of China's dilapidated health care system. The plan calls for spending 850 billion yuan ($124 billion) over three years to expand access to health care and increase the share of medical bills paid by government insurance.
Economists say lack of health insurance is holding back economic development because Chinese families save heavily for medical emergencies instead of spending on consumer goods that would spur growth.
The full cost of meeting China's goals of creating a social safety net could be 5.7 trillion yuan ($832 billion) through 2020, according to a report by a Cabinet think tank. The China Development Research Foundation says that includes money for pensions, housing, health care and aid to migrant workers and the rural poor.
The urgency of boosting domestic demand intensified after China's exports plunged by 17.5 percent in January from a year earlier, with no rebound in sight.
"On the export side, it's dependent on the bottoming out in the global downturn, and for that I don't think we can expect much improvement before the second half of the year. And even that is optimistic," said economist David Cohen of Action Economics in Singapore.
Premier Wen Jiabao, in an online exchange Saturday with Chinese Web surfers, said there were signs of improvement, citing growth in bank lending, retail sales and electric power demand.
"The stimulus measures announced by the government have produced good results in certain areas," Wen wrote. Still, he cautioned that the global crisis has yet to hit bottom and said Beijing was ready to take "firmer and stronger action."
