Having rested his injured shoulder in the flat stages of the Tour de France, leader Cadel Evans is expecting some fierce attacks when the race hits the Alps on Sunday for the first of three daunting days of climbing.
The Australian rider has overcome a crash, intense heat and the distraction of doping scandals and held a one-second lead over Luxembourg's Frank Schleck after Friday's 13th stage. That means he has no margin for error.
Other rivals such as Denis Menchov of Russia, Carlos Sastre of Spain and Christian Vande Velde of the United States are poised to strike in the famed Alpine summits.
Vande Velde is 38 seconds back from Evans, Bernhard Kohl of Austria is 46 seconds down and Menchov is 57 seconds back, while Sastre trails by 1:28 _ but is an exceptional climber.
"We would rather have the jersey with one second rather than have somebody take it over," said Hendrik Reddant, Evans' sporting director at the Silence Lotto team. "They still have to take it."
Team CSC riders Schleck and Sastre pose a big threat to Evans, who expects "attacks from CSC everywhere".
"I'm surprised to hold this jersey this far to be honest, with the strength of CSC," Evans said.
Sunday's 15th stage takes the race from Embrun to Prato Nevoso, with a 20.5-kilometer (12.7-mile) ascent up the Angel pass, a swift descent into a valley, and a final climb for 11.4-kilometers (7 miles) to finish at the Italian ski resort.
Team CSC director and 1996 Tour winner Bjarne Riis _ one of cycling's best tacticians _ can use Schleck, his brother Andy Schleck, German powerhouse Jens Voigt, and Sastre as a relay team to take turns attacking Evans's teammates.
"We don't have the strongest team for the mountains. I'm aware of that and I'm sure our competitors are as well," Evans said. "I think tomorrow depends on what happens over the first climb."
The plan is to leave Evans to work alone on the Angel pass, thus exhausting him before the second climb.
Frankie Andreu, a veteran of nine Tour rides and a former teammate of seven-time Tour winner Lance Armstrong, knows Riis from his cycling days. He expects him to have planned such multiple attack on Evans.
"On the first big climb and they are going to get rid of every Silence-Lotto rider there is, and Cadel is going to be isolated," Andreu said. "Once they come on the descent there is a long descent of 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) into the valley, and they're going to send someone up the valley and force Cadel to do work."
The Angel pass is so tough that it is beyond classification, while the Prato Nevoso is a category one.
Following Monday's rest day in Cuneo, the 16th stage heads out of Italy and into the French Alps.
It is even tougher and has two climbs beyond classification. The Lombarde ascends for 21.5 kilometers (13.3 miles) and La Bonette-Restefond grinds upward for 25.5 kilometers (15.8 miles).
Then comes the piece de resistance on Wednesday _ the Galibier, Croix de Fer and L'Alpe d'Huez.
"For me, the stage up L'Alpe d'Huez is the hardest," Evans said of one of cycling's most famed climbs.
Of the top three in the overall standings, the 32-year-old Vande Velde is the most surprising so far.
The American leader of the Garmin Chipotle team, who rode Armstrong at U.S. Postal, has never finished higher than 23rd. That was two years ago, with Riis' Team CSC.
"Christian just has to keep solid because he can ride a great final time trial," said Jonathan Vaughters, his team manager at Garmin. "A fairly conservative strategy. It will be hard. But in the last time trial, he is the best rider apart from Cadel Evans in the top 10. It is just a matter of him being able to hack through."
Evans' team is certainly not taking Vande Velde lightly.
"We have put some distance on him in the climbs," Reddant said. "Cadel has him in mind. He's a good rider and has always been consistent. We won't attack him. Why should we attack Vande Velde? Let him attack us."
