Zimbabwe's status as a leading member of world cricket looks likely to hinge on the support of the Asian countries at Wednesday's board meeting of the International Cricket Council in Dubai.
Departing president Ray Mali has added a motion to discuss the crisis in Zimbabwe because of the 'worsening situation within the country' after both South Africa and England broke off cricketing relations with them in the past week.
South Africa sparked the situation by breaking off relations with their near neighbours last week and was quickly followed by the England and Wales Cricket Board, which cancelled Zimbabwe's 2009 tour to their country following government intervention.
But for Zimbabwe to have its full member status removed, at least seven of the 10 members at the board meeting in the Westin Hotel need to support its expulsion.
India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe traditionally vote as one in ICC meetings and it will take a major shift in thinking for that to change.
"We're very clear that we would like to fully support Zimbabwe on the issue of full membership of the ICC," confirmed Niranjan Shah, the secretary of the Indian board, earlier this week.
But he stressed: "We will go by our government's guidelines, which will be applicable to specific tours and interactions with Zimbabwe, but nothing has come so far."
One possible reason to shift their support could be the prospect of a lucrative tour to England next year as Zimbabwe's replacement, which is an incentive believed to have been offered to both Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Whether the prospect of a tour to England will be enough to entice them to support Zimbabwe's expulsion is yet to be clarified and will become clearer at the meeting but it is expected to be a tight vote.
Former ECB chairman David Morgan, who is due to succeed Mali as ICC President after the annual meeting, conceded: "It will be a very difficult discussion. India and Zimbabwe are close and India's position is crucial in all this, for sure."
"There was a meeting of the executive board just a year ago when the subject of how member countries are governed was on the table."
"The executive board decided by a substantial majority politics and cricket should not mix. For matters to move forward there will have to be a change in that regard."
Another possible resolution is for Zimbabwe to voluntarily suspend itself from one-day international cricket, which is a move they have done before with their Test status and ensures they retain voting rights and the annual award of significant funds from the ICC.
That would halt a possible crisis over next year's ICC World Twenty20 tournament in England, where the government has already stated it would not grant entry to Zimbabwe for the event.
However, Zimbabwe Cricket chairman Peter Chingoka ruled out any compromise, saying: "No playing right will be suspended and we go into the meeting standing on that principle. We are an independent sports body and entitled to our rights."
"No issues outside cricket will make us review our position as an ICC full member and we are actually saying there is no basis to have the issue discussed and effectively there is no basis for compromise."
If Zimbabwe retained its full member status, it could result in the ICC moving the tournament to an alternative venue with Canada being suggested as a reserve, although there are suggestions the Canadian government has also hardened its stance against Zimbabwe.
Departing president Ray Mali has added a motion to discuss the crisis in Zimbabwe because of the 'worsening situation within the country' after both South Africa and England broke off cricketing relations with them in the past week.
South Africa sparked the situation by breaking off relations with their near neighbours last week and was quickly followed by the England and Wales Cricket Board, which cancelled Zimbabwe's 2009 tour to their country following government intervention.
But for Zimbabwe to have its full member status removed, at least seven of the 10 members at the board meeting in the Westin Hotel need to support its expulsion.
India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe traditionally vote as one in ICC meetings and it will take a major shift in thinking for that to change.
"We're very clear that we would like to fully support Zimbabwe on the issue of full membership of the ICC," confirmed Niranjan Shah, the secretary of the Indian board, earlier this week.
But he stressed: "We will go by our government's guidelines, which will be applicable to specific tours and interactions with Zimbabwe, but nothing has come so far."
One possible reason to shift their support could be the prospect of a lucrative tour to England next year as Zimbabwe's replacement, which is an incentive believed to have been offered to both Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Whether the prospect of a tour to England will be enough to entice them to support Zimbabwe's expulsion is yet to be clarified and will become clearer at the meeting but it is expected to be a tight vote.
Former ECB chairman David Morgan, who is due to succeed Mali as ICC President after the annual meeting, conceded: "It will be a very difficult discussion. India and Zimbabwe are close and India's position is crucial in all this, for sure."
"There was a meeting of the executive board just a year ago when the subject of how member countries are governed was on the table."
"The executive board decided by a substantial majority politics and cricket should not mix. For matters to move forward there will have to be a change in that regard."
Another possible resolution is for Zimbabwe to voluntarily suspend itself from one-day international cricket, which is a move they have done before with their Test status and ensures they retain voting rights and the annual award of significant funds from the ICC.
That would halt a possible crisis over next year's ICC World Twenty20 tournament in England, where the government has already stated it would not grant entry to Zimbabwe for the event.
However, Zimbabwe Cricket chairman Peter Chingoka ruled out any compromise, saying: "No playing right will be suspended and we go into the meeting standing on that principle. We are an independent sports body and entitled to our rights."
"No issues outside cricket will make us review our position as an ICC full member and we are actually saying there is no basis to have the issue discussed and effectively there is no basis for compromise."
If Zimbabwe retained its full member status, it could result in the ICC moving the tournament to an alternative venue with Canada being suggested as a reserve, although there are suggestions the Canadian government has also hardened its stance against Zimbabwe.
